RIAA's Grand Delusion

by George Ziemann -- June 14, 2006

Mitch Bainwol thinks the RIAA has "contained" the problem of unauthorized file sharing. Quoted in yesterday's USA Today, he says, "The problem has not been eliminated. But we believe digital downloads have emerged into a growing, thriving business, and file-trading is flat."

This requires believing that a 15 percent rise in p2p use is "flat," ignoring that the sales trend of CDs is still pointing down, and forgetting that the market share of singles needs to more than double to recapture the glory days of pre-1982. It also seems to not take into account that the average price of a "single" is about 20 percent of what it was four years ago. Believing all of this requires being really, really bad at math. They've made $18 million on the lawsuits so far, which might cover the evaporation of "goodwill" on their financial statements, but probably won't come close to paying all the legal fees.

Bainwol is joined in his alternate reality by the IFPI, which will tell you that the global picture contains 355 legitimate download sites which combined to sell 420 million single songs last year. This is highly entertaining, because that's less than Apple sold last year alone, much less the other 354 outlets.

This is way beyond bad math. Obviously a significant portion of Apple sales are being ignored, or the other "legitimate" sites are buying songs back at half the pace Apple is selling them. Another possibility is that independents own half of the digital download market.

Whatever the explanation, the RIAA is slowly giving up. They hate to say it, so they'll just pitch a new delusion where they are seemingly the victors. In the past 8 years, they have learned nothing and have done nothing but harm the industry, not the least of which was to create a category of "illegal" music, something the government was unable to achieve in 50 years of trying.

On their website, the RIAA asks you to "Imagine a memory empty of the artists that have become cultural icons." It's not too difficult. I've never heard a song by James Blunt, Gorillaz, Robbie Williams, Staind, P.O.D., the Darkness, The Corrs, Scissor Sisters, Flaming Lips, anyone who was on American Idol has hasn't become a Disney property yet, Oakenfold, Lillix, Oasis, Arctic Monkeys, Bow Wow, Live, Saliva, Three 6 Mafia, John Mayer, Jagged Edge, or much of anything else released or distributed by a major label since 2000.

So far, the 21st century is a blank slate as far as icons go, except maybe Elliot Spitzer (for reminding the FCC about payola).

Is it because I don't like the music? Not at all. I have no opinion of any of those acts because I've never heard anything by any of them, as far as I know. Can't look for it on the Internet -- it's all illegal, don't ya know? The RIAA told me so. I wouldn't touch major-label material because if it's on your computer, they'll call you a thief. Since I've never heard any of it, there is no inclination to buy it. None. Zero. Zip. Nada.

So I'm glad to hear the RIAA thinks it has everything under control. The facts simply do not support it. They have been beaten severely by an angry mob of teenagers, while their parents are still waiting for the buck-a-song vendors to find the Beatles and Led Zeppelin before we get so old we forget why we were waiting in the first place.