No Growth in 'Piracy' Since 1986 by George Ziemann -- October 11, 2008 David Kravetz at Wired read a recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce lobbying report to the President, which said that the country loses 750,000 jobs a year (and $200 to $250 billion) to "intellectual property theft." Kravetz dared to ask where those numbers came from and was pointed to the Dept. of Commerce. Julian Sanchez at arsTechnica picked up the thread and the CoC is all like, "Nuh-uh, not us, man. You didn't hear this from us, but you might want to go talk to Customs because we stole it from them in the first place." So Sanchez goes to Customs, which says, "No way. We're not allowed to make estimates of stuff, so don't blame us for 'street value' numbers, either." Sanchez ends up tracing it back to a Christian Science Monitor article from 1986, quoting the Dept. O' Commerce. The circle is complete; it never links back to the RIAA; neither story even suggests that it looks like their work. When I first started trying to figure out where the hell the RIAA was getting their "piracy" numbers, they were claiming $4 billion a year. And it's been 6 years... so $4 billion times six, let's see... yeah, $250 billion. That sounds right. They must be adjusting for inflation. Time to Play "Spin that Statistic!" I believe the single most important thing to observe from the combined stories is the following... According to the U.S. Dept. of Commerce and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the level of "intellectual property theft" in the United States has remained unchanged for 22 years. The internet, mp3s, p2p, Napster, Grokster, Kazaa, ripping groups, YouTube, MySpace -- No apparent effect on the level of counterfeited product being produced. Things are no worse than 1986. On the flip side of that coin we have the RIAA's quasi-police enforcement division, smash-and-grab invasions of record stores, DRM, rootkits, thousands of frivolous lawsuits, and general disregard for the audience and the artists. None of these strong-arm tactics have achieved the stated goal of curbing piracy. Things are exactly the same as 1986. No better, no worse. In case you're obfuscating at home, we're talking zero percent. No rounding. Traditional media would have to stop here, because they're not allowed to speculate. I, however, feel that it's part of my duty (as whatever the hell it is I am) to provide that extra level of insight that MSM does not deliver. We've got several possibilities to choose from: Option 1 -- The government statistics are correct. If statistics like this came from the RIAA, well, their reputation precedes them. But they seem to trace back to the Dept. of Commerce, which has reiterated this particular statistic numerous times, as has Customs. They probably even had signs made for around the office. Gee willikers, you don't think these numbers are wrong, do ya? Or (I shudder to think) pulled out of the air? Perhaps an even less desireable storage area? Why would the government do a thing like that? Would a good citizen question the motives of the Chamber of Commerce? I think not. If they say it's the same as 1986, well dadgummit, it's probably the same. Option 2 -- The statistics were, at some point in time, correct. Then they made those little signs and no one ever asked for updated information. Whenever anyone asked about IP theft, the staff just read off what the signs say. They've got little magnets and bookmarks, too. New estimate? We'd have to get all new signs! Option 3 -- These particular statistics were never correct in the first place. I'm betting that this is a number the RIAA extracted from a nether region in 1985 or early 1986 and sent out a press release, plus sent one of their vultures over to the Dept. of Commerce to play Jedi mind tricks on them and implant the numbers in their consciousness. Every year, the RIAA digs out the same press release, changes the date and sends it out again. probably not even considering the last time anyone checked that out. Option 4 -- They've been lying to us for decades. It's always been a scam. This is the conspiracy theory option. The government recites the same statistic for 22 years and no one notices it until this week. Option 5 -- Complete and utter stupidity It's always necessary to balance any conspiracy theory with the possibility that everyone involved in perpetuating this "fact" over the years has been a complete and total idiot that didn't have the sense or the authority to ask when the last time anyone checked on this statistic that they keep offering to Congress (and the President) as evidence. Note that this includes the recipients. We all know that the possibility of this data being accurate and the piracy rate having remained constant for two decades is pretty fucking slim to none. After all, we are talking about the government, which has been lying out its ass since at least 1986. Hell, even if you were going to fake the numbers, you'd change them a little every year so you could talk about percentages instead of actual numbers. Bottom line is that this talking point, which is used repeatedly as a factual argument, is an unsubstantiated claim for which empirical data has never been provided and no one is willing to acknowledge being the source thereof. And no one ever noticed. For 22 years, no one ever asked where those statistics came from. Because you can fool some of the people all of the time and they currently make up the majority of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Related Content Fiction or Fiction: 750,000 American Jobs Lost to IP Piracy (Wired) 750,000 lost jobs? The dodgy digits behind the war on piracy (arsTechnica) RIAA Statistics Don't Add Up to Piracy (AzOz)